Stock market investments

[Alberto]

So you will stop working in a few years only. Congrats.
Presumably you will then have some kind of retirement income, like DRV or whatever else....oder...?
If yes, is this income reasonable for ordinary living so that you don't *really* have to access your invested capital?
If yes, I wouldn't touch it.
If not, maybe.

As I wrote earlier: I don't think this kind of decision should be based too much on your market expectations. Rather, where one currently stands on his financial life, should be the major driving criteria.

No taking credit away from Buffet, but I wouldn't really look at what he's doing. There's probably a huge amount of stuff that we don't know behind what he does, so reaching big conclusions on extremely limited knowledge is generally bad, "he's selling stocks, so he probably expects a crash, maybe I should take examples.....". Sorry, not saying Buffet is wrong but I don't subscribe to this.

[yesterday]

Thanks for those thoughts

[Fraufruit]

Alberto, you do know that most people invest for many years in order to have a comfortable retirement, right? Why do you suggest not to touch the investments? The plan is to take out a couple grand or whatever each month to supplement their Rente. The investment account will continue to grow if one is careful and doesn't get into one's principal.

[Alberto]

Alberto, you do know that most people invest for many years in order to have a comfortable retirement, right? Why do you suggest not to touch the investments?

FF, I agree. Apologies if I gave the impression I have a different view.

I strongly suggest not to take out of investment too early. Taking out for/during retirement, little by little, is what I also think best.

Just sometimes I hear (not here, admittedly) people saying like "my investment did well, I better cash it out and invest in something else". Sometime even young people.

[Fraufruit]

Oh, I understand. Thanks.

Unloading a winner is a good way to give money to the Finanzamt.

[alma.freya]

Taking out for/during retirement, little by little, is what I also think best.

This also has the added benefit that you can pay income tax instead of capital gains tax on your profits via Günstigerprüfung. In most cases this would result in a much lower tax rate.

https://frugalisten.de/steuern-kapitale ... ptimieren/

[yesterday]

So as noted above, I was worried about a correction, and it seems we now have one , although not for the reasons I gave, it has all been down to the man in the Whitehouse.

I did sell, some of my investments, late last year, which I am happy about now, as I need the cash for something else.

At the moment I intend to leave my money in the market and wait for the recovery, I am playing with putting some more in, but I think there are more problems to come and that will push the markets even further down.

Hope nobody panics and sells at a loss

[Fraufruit]

Yes, leave it in if you don't have to live from it. This, too, shall pass.

[Alberto]

it has all been down to the man in the Whitehouse.

Yes!
I would love to understand the psychology driving him. Sometimes I think he just get pleasure by making others suffer.

[yesterday]

Still think, if you think the current bad times will continue, ie more tariffs, and the stock market will fall further, then its not the worst idea to sell and buy back lower down the market.

But of course I have no real idea what the market will do, so I guess I am going to ride it out, which is no problem.

But it does not satisfy my greed gene

[bethannbitt]

In response to Alberto: He was shipped off to a military boarding school as a kid, which is code for "My kid doesn't follow rules and social norms. We can't control him. He needs the tough love approach." Clearly, this was unsuccessful. His psychiatric illness is best identified as a mixed, severe personality disorder with sociopathic, narcissistic, and borderline features, otherwise known "All F***ed Up Syndrome". Not much more to it than that.

[Franklan]

I would love to understand the psychology driving him.

There is a field of study called "Game theory". It is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions.

There are zero-sum games and non-zero-sum games.

The psychology driving him is seeing every relation as a zero-sum-game. Of which he wants to be the winner.

I would love to understand the psychology driving him.

Read the link about zero-sum-games...

[Eric7]

It's blatant market manipulation.

1. Threaten (or actually impose) dramatic tariffs, or make statements that create instability and watch the markets fall.
2. Gobble up bottomed out stocks and crypto
3. Remove tariffs, stop talking smack and watch the profits soar.

Some people will get insanely rich.

[Alberto]

I would love to understand the psychology driving him.

There is a field of study called "Game theory". It is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions.

There are zero-sum games and non-zero-sum games.

The psychology driving him is seeing every relation as a zero-sum-game. Of which he wants to be the winner.

I would love to understand the psychology driving him.

Read the link about zero-sum-games...

Thanks but I think you got this wrong.
Tarifs make everyone poorer, including the US.
A game where all the addends happen to be negative, is not a zero-sum game. Or am I wrong?

[Franklan]

Thanks but I think you got this wrong.
Tarifs make everyone poorer, including the US.
A game where all the addends happen to be negative, is not a zero-sum game. Or am I wrong?

OK, you ask what's going wrong in his mind. I describe the zero-sum-gaming going on in his head.
Now you tell me it is me who is wrong because tarifs make everyone poorer.

A game where all the addends happen to be negative, is not a zero-sum game.

Exactly, it is a non-zero-sum-game, and his mistake is handling it like a zero-sum-game.

[Alberto]

it is a non-zero-sum-game, and his mistake is handling it like a zero-sum-game.

But what I'd love to understand, is why does he do this?
I'd be tempted to say he's just stupid. But I don't think he is, stupid. Evil yes, not stupid.

[Franklan]

But what I'd love to understand, is why does he do this?

There were people who at some point in their life made the decision that the world only gets saved from the evil when they cut their own cock off with some rusty branch pruning shears… Yes, that happened.

There is a difference between "understanding" why they're doing that and grasping that "they're actually bonkers enough to do that".

[yesterday]

All the stuff I read indicates, thats its going to make all countries that play the game worse off, But you have to listen to what Trump says

ie Trump thinks that everyone will be worse off in the short term, but in the medium term to long term, he thinks that the USA will be not as badly off as the rest of the world, so the USA will be relatively better off.

ie Trump thinks, that by imposing Tariffs on EU Alcohol, will encourage the USA to produce more alcohol products in the USA, thus creating more USA jobs, of course this means less EU jobs. The French are very un happy about this, and may try to make a deal, which will weaken, the EU position, but save jobs in France.

ie Trump wants Tarff's on cars not build in the USA, so that manufactures will move production to the USA to save the tariff cost, this means more jobs in the USA. Trump is not happy to have cars coming from the rest of the world because, that's less American jobs at home, he thinks that the USA will become richer, if this happens. However analysts think that this will cause the USA to be less efficient, as they know they have no more computation, resulting in less car salles aboard.

and the list goes on.

As long as Trump can put tariffs on like this and the other country does not apply receptacle tariffs, he thinks he is winning.

The problem is, what's the alternative to trade with the USA, I do not really want more trade with Russia, China etc.

Free Trade between counties normally, is good for both sides according to most analyst.

[Fraufruit]

Personally, I don't listen to what Trump says because he changes what he says daily or he is flat out lying.

China and Russia are not the only trading parnters in the world.