hTTi

We used to have a very nice thread in the old TT forum about Investment and stock market. Surprised we don't have yet one like that here. So here we go....

When I started investing regularly in the stock market in 2018, I thought I would have been happy with an average 7%/yr return (the average since record began, which unsurprisingly is the number most government say is fair to expect for long term investments like pensions).

Instead it averaged 11%/yr. And I'm not smart (you knew this already if you knew me), I only ever bought simple boring indexes with ultralow fees. And no posh smiley cheeky expensive unnecessary vendors (or "advisors", as they like to be called).

I wish I started 20yr earlier, in hindsight I was too cautious, wanted to get more stability in term of family and employment and housing, now I say this was a mistake.

Huge jump in stock value since the Trump won. I wish he had not won (altogether we would be better off, including most of those who voted him) but never mind this is another story...

So what's your latest thought about investment and stock market?

Trump isn't in the White House yet. The market didn't perform very well his first term.

Yes, starting early is good but it's never too late.

Fraufruit wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:03 pm The market didn't perform very well his first term.

SP500 jumped ca 15%/yr during his 1st term (2150 to 3500). I would therefore say the market did very well during his 1st term.

Fraufruit wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:03 pm Trump isn't in the White House yet.

True, but since the election the market skyrocketed. Can't prove this is causal but ...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029987163

Yes, good for a Republican president

Fraufruit wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:07 pm https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029987163
Yes, good for a Republican president

Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

Alberto wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 5:42 pm And I'm not smart
...
I only ever bought simple boring indexes with ultralow fees.

Contradicting yourself there.

You named your thread “Investment”.
Did you mean just stock market related stuff or other kinds are welcome to be discussed too.
Example: real estate.

Nixon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:57 pm You named your thread “Investment”.
Did you mean just stock market related stuff or other kinds are welcome to be discussed too.
Example: real estate.

My opinion is that it's best to have separate discussion for them.

Fraufruit wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:07 pm https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029987163

Yes, good for a Republican president

This really grabbed my attention.
So the question I asked myself is: how does the stock market behave differently for Dem or Rep US president?
Of course this is a question others, smarter, have already asked, and answred.

Can you try to answer, or at least make a guess, before reading further?

Without knowing nothing about US, politics, or economics, as I do, my line of thought was: Rep lower taxes to most and especially to the richer, and favor deregulation, smaller goverments, and smaller gov budgets, all things businesses like (no, I'm not saying US Rep preidents are better for the economy). Therefore I expected the stock market performed better during Rep presidents than otherwise.

Here what I found:

The average annual return for the S&P 500 index when we had a Republican President was 9.32%. When we had a Democratic President, the S&P 500 average 14.78% per year.
https://retirementresearcher.com/are-re ... ck-market/

Fraufruit wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:07 pm https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029987163

Yes, good for a Republican president

This really grabbed my attention.
So the question I asked myself is: how does the stock market behave differently for Dem or Rep US president?
Of course this is a question others, smarter (well, it doesn't take much to be smarter than me, so no big deal...), have already asked, and answered.

Can you try to answer, or at least make a guess, before reading further?

Without knowing anything about US, politics, or economics, as I do, my line of thought was: Rep lower taxes to most and especially to the richer, and favor deregulation, smaller goverments, and smaller gov budgets, all things businesses like (no, I'm not saying US Rep preidents are better for the economy). Therefore I expected the stock market performed better during Rep presidents than otherwise.

Here what I found, ca 100yr of data:

The average annual return for the S&P 500 index when we had a Republican President was 9.32%. When we had a Democratic President, the S&P 500 average 14.78% per year.
https://retirementresearcher.com/are-re ... ck-market/

In a nutshell, Republicans don't do what they say they stand for - smaller government, etc. They give breaks to the rich and the poor get poorer. Very bad for the economy.

That's my opinion after observing for many years.

Fraufruit wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 4:27 pm In a nutshell, Republicans don't do what they say they stand for - smaller government, etc.

But thats the case everywhere.

How often do you hear German politicians talk about reducing burocracy? And nothing happens.
Why? Because many who sit in parliament live from burocracy. Just look at the over-complex taxation system
or health insurance...

HEM wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 4:50 pm How often do you hear German politicians talk about reducing burocracy? And nothing happens.
Why? Because many who sit in parliament live from burocracy. Just look at the over-complex taxation system
or health insurance...

Very interesting.
Actually I disagree: in my opinion it is not vested interesting preventing german politicians from tackling excessive complexity. Certain things are just ingrained in german mentalities. Germans really do feel overall better in a system controlled by many rules, better know what to expect, how you have to behave, what you're allowed and what you're forbidden and what's compulsory etc.

But as interesting as this diversion is, can we please not move away from the original topic of stock market investement...

Someone is becoming very German.