What do you think about Iran conflict?

[yesterday]

There was talk that maybe Putin will not accept this vote, and invade.

But I think the chance is low

[Franklan]

BBC reports on this: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has conceded defeat in the Hungarian election after 16 years in power, with the opposition on course for a landslide win.

There was talk that maybe Putin will not accept this vote, and invade.

Hungary is a NATO member, the Ukraine is not. He'd better not.

[Eric7]

There was talk that maybe Putin will not accept this vote, and invade.

But I think the chance is low

Invade Hungary?
Have you seen a map?

[Eric7]

Orbán is bravely defending Hungary by keeping it hooked on Russian energy, blocking help for a country Russia invaded, and repeating the line that everyone else should absorb the strategic cost instead. Very sovereign. Very patriotic. Very conveniently aligned with the Kremlin.

Of course leaders should protect their own countries. The problem is that ‘national interest’ is so narrowly defined here that aggression gets rewarded, dependency gets normalised, and anyone resisting imperial bullying is told to know their place. That isn’t realism, it’s submission dressed up as pragmatism.

Looks like Orbán has lost today's election... So this could be over soon.

Just curious... what could be over soon?

In other news, the "EU boosts imports of Russian gas as Middle East crisis squeezes supplies"
https://www.ft.com/content/5f96c141-e34 ... 25a6b1a6=1

Unfortunately, Hungary has no access to LNG ports, but who cares?

[john_b]

Orban is just looking out for the interests of Hungary, which is exactly what he should be doing.

Well, it looks like a very large percentage of Hungarians didn't share your analysis.

Unfortunately, Hungary has no access to LNG ports, but who cares?

Strange how ‘we have no LNG ports’ keeps appearing as an excuse, but never as a problem worth solving — especially when solutions involve better relations with EU neighbours and less reliance on Russian gas. Almost as if the dependency were a choice.

[Eric7]

Unfortunately, Hungary has no access to LNG ports, but who cares?

Strange how ‘we have no LNG ports’ keeps appearing as an excuse, but never as a problem worth solving — especially when solutions involve better relations with EU neighbours and less reliance on Russian gas. Almost as if the dependency were a choice.

So the solution is reliance on other EU countries to supply them with Russian LNG?
Make it make sense John!

The EU countries telling Hungary not to buy from Russia while at the same time massively increasing their own purchases from Russia seems just a tiny bit hypocritical, no?

I'm sure you'll have a nice excuse for them though...

[john_b]

Yeah yeah, nice try, but that’s not the argument.

The point isn’t ‘buy Russian gas via someone else’ — it’s diversify away from Russia altogether. LNG ≠ Russian by default. The whole strategy since 2022 has been to replace Russian pipeline gas with global supply (US, Qatar, Norway, etc.) routed through EU terminals.

And yes, some EU countries still buy limited Russian LNG — nobody claims it’s perfect — but they’ve massively reduced dependence overall. Hungary, on the other hand, locked it in long-term and called it inevitability.

So it’s not hypocrisy vs purity — it’s direction of travel. Most of Europe is trying (messily) to get off Russian energy. Orbán has been arguing for staying on it — and then blaming geography.

Anyway, despite your piss-poor prediction a couple of weeks ago, your man is out on his arse. Thoughts and prayers at this difficult time!

[Eric7]

I don't remember making any predictions but I'm sure you'll remind me.

From another forum re. Péter Magyar (not my words but interesting):
Péter Magyar is not the anti-Orbán. He is running on a platform that is Orbán without the corruption.

As Orban, Magyar opposes the EU migration pact. He voted against the loan to Ukraine. He wants strong borders and has no plans to reverse Hungary’s energy ties with Russia before 2035. On every substantive question that defines the European left-right divide, Magyar sits exactly where Orbán sits.

What he promises to change is governance, not ideology. Anti-corruption reforms, rule of law, meritocratic appointments, unlocking frozen EU funds. A voter who backed Orbán for border security and national sovereignty can vote for Magyar without abandoning a single conviction. The only thing that voter has to abandon is tolerance for theft.

Orbán did not lose the argument. He lost the trust.

Was part of fattys gang but left because of the corruption, he's not opening the gates and painting things rainbow.

New boy is allegedly a wife beater too.

Sounded decent up until the last line...

[john_b]

That’s actually a more interesting take than most of what you’ve been saying — but it cuts a different way than you think.

If Magyar can attract Orbán voters without changing core positions, that suggests the issue isn’t some grand ideological battle being ‘won’, but that Orbán’s system has become too corrupt and self-serving to sustain trust. And ‘same policies, less corruption’ isn’t a minor tweak — it’s the difference between a functioning state and a captured one.

As for the rest… the “fatty”, “wife beater”, “rainbow” stuff — that’s just noise. If the argument is strong, it doesn’t need that kind of garnish.

FWIW, while Magyar does indeed come out of the Fidesz orbit and doesn’t radically break with that voter base on headline issues, he does diverge in his approach to the EU. He’s been explicit about normalising relations, restoring rule-of-law standards, and unlocking frozen EU funds — which implies a very different tone and practice: less confrontational, less veto-driven, and more aligned with EU norms.

So yes — ideologically there’s overlap. But institutionally and diplomatically, the shift is meaningful. And in Hungary’s case, that isn’t cosmetic — it goes to the core of how the country is governed and how it situates itself in Europe. Turns out once you remove the corruption and the constant battles with the EU, you’re left with something that looks… rather different after all.

PS Judging by Don's latest self-portrait, reality seems to be under quite a bit of pressure in your preferred political circle today! Are you ready for the Rapture ?

[Eric7]

It's all blah until he actually does something and I'll believe in 'less corruption' when that is proven to be the case.
It wouldn't be the first (or millionth) time a politician has lied to get into office then turned around and done the opposite to what they promised. It's not like we'd ever really know for sure about any corruption either...
In the meantime, he apparently has no plans to reduce the short term reliance on Russian energy so it's hard to see what will really change.

Not sure what you mean by my "preferred political circle"? Surely you aren't again implying I support the deranged orange imbecile (along with KJU, Farage etc.)? I thought we'd been through that already.

[john_b]

Fair enough — scepticism about politicians promising ‘clean government’ is entirely justified. That’s a constant, not a Hungarian speciality.

But that cuts both ways. If you don’t believe Magyar when he talks about reducing corruption, it’s a bit odd to treat the setup under Orbán as some kind of known quantity you can live with. One is unproven; the other is already pretty well documented.

On energy, yes — he’s not proposing a sudden break, which is hardly surprising given the structure of Hungary’s supply. The difference is more about direction: whether you treat that dependency as something to gradually unwind with partners, or something to lock in and defend.

And on the ‘preferred circle’ — no, I’m not claiming you’re carrying a membership card. Just noting that the arguments you’re making tend to line up rather neatly with a certain ecosystem. Draw your own conclusions on that.